SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe

This study has been done to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction algorithm model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals, without previous CVD or diabetes, aged 40–69 years in Europe. Risk prediction models were derived using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events) in 13 countries, using sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models (age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, total- and HDL-cholesterol, etc.). Thus, four risk regions have been defined in Europe in line with country-specific CVD mortality, using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. Four external validation, data from 25 additional cohorts  (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events) in 15 European countries were analysed. The predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions, e.g., the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged or men from 5.9% in low-risk countries to 14.0% in very high-risk countries, and for women from 4.2% in low-risk countries to 13.7% in very high-risk countries. In conclusion, SCORE2 will enhance the individuals’ identification at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe. The full text is available here.