Age-specific atrial fibrillation incidence, attributable risk factors and risk of stroke and mortality: results from the MORGAM Consortium

The aim of this study was to examine age-specific risk factor associations with incident atrial fibrillation (AF) and their attributable fraction in a large European cohort. With individual-level data (n=66 951, 49.1% men, age range 40–98 years at baseline) from five European cohorts of the MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph Consortium, the participants were followed for incident AF for up to 10 years and the association with modifiable risk factors from the baseline examinations (body mass index (BMI), hypertension, diabetes, daily smoking, alcohol consumption and history of stroke and myocardial infarction (MI)). Additionally, the participants were followed up for incident stroke and all-cause mortality after new-onset AF. Between 30% and 40% of the AF risk could be attributed to BMI, hypertension and a history of stroke or MI. Thus, preventive measures for AF should target risk factors such as obesity and hypertension from early age and continue throughout life.

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