SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe

This study aimed to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40–69 years in Europe. Risk prediction models have been derived using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low-risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries. The new algorithm, SCORE2, enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.

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